Let’s get right into our favorite wagers from what should be a phenomenal holiday of hoops.
All spreads, moneylines, and over/unders are from BetMGM and have been updated as of Christmas morning.
NBA Christmas Best Bets: Against the Spread
Milwaukee Bucks +4.5 (+100) at Boston Celtics
Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks have been rolling, winning seven of their preview 10 games and 10 of their previous 14 before Friday, ultimately leapfrogging Boston for the top spot in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics, meanwhile, have hit the skids after a blazing-hot 21-5 start to the season under interim head coach Joe Mazzulla. Boston had lost five of its past six games before Friday, hitting a low point for the season when it dropped two in a row to the Magic and one to the Pacers, two squads with a combined winning percentage of .430).
The recent return of Robert Williams III from a late-summer knee injury was originally expected to bolster a Celtics defense that already came out of the gates among the best in the league. However, Time Lord has yet to shake the rust off from his lengthy absence, and Boston’s D ranks last in December.
Celtics scoring leader and MVP candidate Jayson Tatum recently told the Boston media that he and his squad need to “learn how to win again.” However, this feels like more than just a collective mindset issue. The Celtics are missing open shots and looking half-hearted on both ends of the floor, and they’re also letting opponents dictate the pace of games while crushing in transition and clutch situations.
Whatever the cause of these slump-related problems, Boston has Milwaukee likely licking its chops. The Bucks have one of the best defenses in the NBA, ranking third in D rating and fourth in points per game. They have also run the fast break with efficiency, and they score nearly seven more points in the paint per game than Boston.
That last wrinkle could be the difference in this game. Even with Williams back in the lineup, reuniting Boston’s NBA Finals starting five with Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Al Horford, and Marcus Smart, this squad has not played big as it did in its run at the title. Milwaukee’s massive front court — perennial DPOY candidate Giannis, current blocks leader Brook Lopez, and the always-pesky Bobby Portis — could give the C’s even more fits than Cleveland’s twin towers have this season.
Prediction: Bucks 112, Celtics 109. We’re betting the Bucks’ spread just for insurance purposes, but all signs point to Milwaukee putting a lump of coal in Boston’s green stockings for the second Christmas in a row.
Other NBA Christmas spreads we like: Lakers +7.5 (-105) at Mavericks, Grizzlies (-4.5) at Warriors (line changed to -7.5)
NBA Christmas Best Bets: Moneyline
Phoenix Suns (+135) at Denver Nuggets
Every Christmas needs at least one good upset. We’re betting the big moneyline upset this year will come from Devin Booker and the Suns burning Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets in Denver.
We understand the risks of backing a Phoenix team that’s 5-9 on the road against a Denver squad that was 10-4 at home heading into Friday night’s game against Portland. We also understand that back-to-back MVP Jokic is nearly impossible to contain and has a better supporting cast around him than he’s perhaps ever had. But the Suns had won three of their past four before Friday, with the only loss coming with Booker in street clothes, and they have played big with DeAndre Ayton owning the paint.
The Nuggets have operated one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA this season, with the third-best offensive rating and seventh-most points per game. However, their defense has also allowed the sixth-most points per game and third-best field goal percentage. Denver also allows opponents to average the most offensive rebounds and the second-most overall boards, so we expect Ayton and backup big Bismack Biyombo (say that five times fast) to impose their wills down low.
If Chris Paul runs Monty Williams’ offense fluidly, the Suns avoid foul trouble, and we see Booker, Mikal Bridges, and Landry Shamet shoot as well as they have of late, Mike Malone’s Nugs will have trouble avoiding a rare home defeat.
Prediction: Suns 111, Nuggets 107. A not-so-festive feeling for the hometown team and its fans, with Booker and Ayton playing like the All-Stars we expect them to be in two months.
Other Christmas moneylines we like: 76ers (-140) at Knicks, Bucks (+165) at Celtics
NBA Christmas Best Bets: Over/Under
76ers at Knicks: OVER 217.5 (-110)
This is a battle of two of the hottest teams in the NBA, with the Knicks winning eight of their past 10 games and Philly winning seven of its past 10 heading into Friday. We honestly don’t know which way we would bet this one against the spread with the home-court Knicks getting 2.5 points and the Sixers narrow -140 moneyline favorites. What we do know is that both of these squads have been scoring with ease lately, and we expect that trend to continue.
In Philly’s seven games before Friday night, Doc Rivers’ squad had averaged 120.4 points per game. During that same span, Tom Thibodeau’s Knicks have averaged 116.9 points, which happens to be right around their season-long average at home (116.4). On the defensive end, we’ve seen something out of New York that’s rare for a Thibs squad: New York sits among the six squads allowing the most points and best field goal percentage in the NBA.
That’s great news for NBA scoring leader Joel Embiid and company. After a slow start, JoJo has been cooking over this strong stretch. James Harden has shot well and seamlessly created for others since returning from his foot injury, and Tobias Harris has played some of his best basketball as a Sixer this season. Even ancillary pieces like Shake Milton, Georges Niang, and (on good days) even Montrezl Harrell have stepped up.
As for the Knicks, everything seems to be clicking for Thibs’ offense. The Jalen Brunson signing, one that was widely criticized by pundits as an over-inflated contract, might turn out to be one of the best deals of the 2022 offseason. He looks like an All-Star at best and Most Improved Player candidate at worst, and he has the scorers around him like Julius Randle and R.J. Barrett playing inspired basketball. Don’t expect a defensive battle out of this Christmas kick-off.
Prediction: 76ers 118, Knicks 114. The Sixers prove too much for the Knicks, whose defensive woes continue like bad Elf on the Shelf photos on social media.
Other Christmas over/unders we like: Bucks-Celtics UNDER 224.5 (-115), Suns-Nuggets UNDER 231.5 (-105), Lakers-Mavericks OVER 225.5 (-110) (O/U increased to 229.5)
