Every Wednesday during the NFL season, we scour the sportsbooks in search of prime betting value. We delve into the data — both past and present — and weigh out potential variables for each game, before turning it all into one succinct listing of nine or 10 best bets. No matter your betting preference, we have you covered!
Last week, we covered plenty — and turned a hefty profit in the process. Highlighting our Week 3 hits, we had the Lions (+6) cover at Minnesota and the Broncos (+106) upset the 49ers. We also crushed our two UNDER bets, most notably Packers and Bucs UNDER 42 (the game finished with a robust score of 14-12 Green Bay).
However, like Ezekiel Elliott at the goal line, we’re still hungry. We’re not satisfied with one or two wins in each section — this week, we are committed to making a clean sweep across the board. Christmas is under three months away — let’s build up this bankroll so Santa doesn’t have to cancel due to COVID-like symptoms!
MORE: Full list of odds for NFL Week 4
Like we always say, the name of the game in sports betting is finding value, attacking an edge or angle, and capitalizing with a smart wager. Let’s dive in, and reveal Sporting News’ best bets for Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season, including picks against the spread, moneyline bets, over/under wagers, and some player props.
JUMP TO: Spreads | Moneylines | Over/under | Player props
NFL Best Bets Week 4: Against the spread
All odds are courtesy of Sports Interaction.
Chiefs (-2) at Buccaneers (potentially neutral field due to Hurricane Ian)
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Tom Brady is finally experiencing a decline. Many factors have played into the inevitable regression: age, off-the-field personal stuff, missing time during training camp, coaching changes, the departure of key offensive weapons, schedule, etc. But it’s happening, just like the hurricane that looks positioned to crawl up the Gulf Coast and through northern Florida.
We can’t run from aging or imminent physical decline, but we can run from storms. The Bucs have been practicing in Miami this week, and will likely play this ratings dandy of a game on a neutral field if Hurricane Ian does enough damage to catastrophically affect the area around Raymond James Stadium. With Chris Godwin (hamstring) still injured, a neutral site in an offensive battle with Patrick Mahomes seems like a pretty bad deal for Brady.
Perhaps the biggest issue for Brady has been pass protection. The Bucs’ O-line endured some offseason losses and critical injuries, and now the GOAT is feeling the most pressure in the pocket than he ever has during his tenure in Tampa. Without his key pass-catchers, the seven-time champ has struggled to get the ball out quickly.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, cruised through the opening weeks but then hit a big speed-bump last Sunday with a 20-17 loss to the Colts in Indianapolis. So, expect a very motivated Mahomes (cliche but true). Since becoming a starter on New Year’s Eve in 2017, Mahomes has lost two games in a row just three times (he’s played 66 career games). The four-time Pro Bowler has also never lost to the Bucs, while Brady is 5-5 all-time against the Chiefs. We’ll take Mahomes and company by a field goal.
Eagles (-6.5) vs. Jaguars
Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson has Trevor Lawrence and friends playing inspired football, with a shutout win over division-rival Indy as well as a blowout victory over the Chargers already this season. However, Jacksonville will run into a buzzsaw this weekend in the City of Brotherly Love.
We knew Jalen Hurts was due for some positive regression this season, but we didn’t realize he’d be a bona fide MVP candidate right out of the gates. A.J. Brown has clearly helped everyone around him get better, including fellow pass-catchers DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, as well as running back Miles Sanders. Philly’s offensive line has been the cream of the pass-protecting crop this season, ranking No. 1 on PFF’s O-line rankings after each of the first three weeks, and Hurts has been downright electric.
The fun doesn’t stop there for Nick Sirianni’s crew. The Eagles also have a phenomenal defense, fortified by multiple key offseason acquisitions. Philly ranks in the top seven in the NFL in scoring defense, total yards allowed, and takeaways. Darius Slay, Avonte Maddox, and James Bradberry comprise a stifling secondary, behind a menacing front-seven that averages four sacks per game (second most in the league).
We love what we’ve seen out of the Jags early on this season, as they rank No. 1 in turnovers (1) and No. 1 in takeaways (8), and they have the top rushing defense in the NFL through three weeks. But they have yet to face Hurts, who has elevated to a new level of awesome this season.
I know the Pederson revenge game narrative is there, but I just don’t see a road upset coming out of this one. Ask Minnesota and Washington who they’re picking here — those squads got collectively outscored by Philly 48-15 over the past two weeks. I’ve got the high-flying Eagles by double-digits over the upstart Jags.
NFL WEEK 4 PICKS: Against the spread | Moneyline Picks
Seahawks (+4.5) at Lions
No offense to the Lions — they have enjoyed one hell of a start, and Jared Goff looks like he’s turned back the hands of time — but Detroit does not deserve to be a nearly five-point favorite in this contest. Lead back D’Andre Swift is banged up from the top-down (shoulder, ankle) and could miss time along with stud wide receiver breakout Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle). Safety Tracy Walker also tore his Achilles’ last Sunday in a brutal four-point loss to the Vikings in Minnesota.
A 1-2 squad missing its two most important offensive weapons and its most important safety should not be -4.5 on the sportsbooks. Sure, the Seahawks just lost to the Falcons at home, but Seattle also beat a Denver squad in Week 1 that’s arguably much better than the Lions as currently constituted. Geno Smith is playing damn good football right now — he leads the NFL with a 77.5-completion percentage and ranks in the top 10 with a QB rating north of 100!
Pete Carroll’s offense has started to figure things out, right at the same time this Lions team is falling apart like a toddler-guided Jenga tower. Smith worked in Seattle’s star receiving tandem of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett early and often last week, and we saw flashes of brilliance between veteran back Rashaad Penny and rookie Kenneth Walker III. Big Will Dissly in the red zone has been as reliable as a Die Hard battery, too.
The most underrated part of this game from a betting angle: Seattle’s defense. The Seahawks have low-key been great at defending their end zone, allowing TDs just 38.5 percent of the time their opponents reach the 20-yard line (fourth-best RZ percentage in the NFL). They have also forced multiple turnovers in two of their first three games and surrendered just 195.5 passing yards per game over the past two weeks. Seattle’s clicking right now, while Motown is singing the blues. Take the ‘Hawks and the points — they might win this one straight up.
MORE NFL WEEK 4: Power Rankings
Best NFL moneyline bets Week 4
Broncos (+126) at Raiders
You gotta hand it to Russell Wilson: he might be corny, but he’s a pretty positive, upbeat guy considering how his tenure in Denver has started. Despite red-zone inefficiencies like we have never seen from the nine-time Pro Bowl QB, Wilson has somehow rallied this team to a 2-1 start.
But man, oh man, has it been ugly at times. Many pundits have blamed Wilson — hell, even I got on him a bit recently. He often appears rushed and uncomfortable in the pocket. He zips close passes too fast and occasionally misses badly on deep balls. He has barely used his legs to get him out of trouble.
The wins have come, though, which is more than we can say for Josh McDaniels and the Raiders. Vegas has been one of the biggest disappointments season so far. They just can’t get out of their own way in crunch time. Nathaniel Hackett has addressed his weaknesses as a first-time head coach, but McDaniels still seems like the only coach on the sidelines that doesn’t realize he doesn’t have what it takes to lead a team to greatness.
Facing the Broncos defense — even at home — will be tough for Derek Carr and his offensive line. Vegas surrenders 2.7 sacks per game and throws 1.7 interceptions per game, both among the most in the NFL. Denver just has a better overall team top to bottom than the Raiders. I’m not sure why Vegas is favored, but I guess Davante Adams and Darren Waller at home helps. I just don’t see the 2-1 Broncos getting any worse — or the 0-3 Raiders getting any better — at least in the immediate future.
Bills (-165) at Ravens
This one should be one of the games of the week, if not the entire season. MVP frontrunner Josh Allen takes on 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson in what should be a high-scoring affair. Sign us up!
The Bills got stunned by the Dolphins in Miami last week, while the Ravens ran roughshod over the Patriots. Hence, the Bills are just -3 ATS and -165 ML, despite having a much better overall team. Sounds like an opportunity to us!
Dive deeper into Buffalo’s 21-19 loss last Sunday, and you’ll notice a few things. For one, Stefon Diggs and multiple other Bills were suffering through heat exhaustion throughout the 100-plus degrees afternoon. Secondly, Allen whacked his hand on someone’s helmet during a drive late in the second half, clearly affecting what would have been the go-ahead TD pass at the end of the game.
I know this sounds like a bunch of “whataboutism,” but it’s true! Allen completes that pass 999 out of 1,000 times and the Bills win that game and enter this weekend favored by 4.5 or -220. Instead, we get a win by four or a straight-up victory at -165.
With a better climate, Allen’s hand all better, and Diggs getting more help from fellow wideout Gabe Davis (who should finally be fully recovered from his ankle injury after appearing less than 100 percent last week), I like the favorites here.
Vikings (-160) vs. Saints (Neutral venue — London game, 9:30 ET)
Kevin O’Connor and the Vikings have had a roller-coaster of a 2022 season so far, and now they get to travel to London for tea, crumpets, and a matchup with the Saints. The Vikings are fresh off a hard-fought 28-24 win over Detroit, while the Saints are coming off a bad 22-14 loss to the Panthers. Minnesota is 2-1, its lone defeat coming at the hands of Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. New Orleans is 1-2, its lone victory coming in a 27-26 Week 2 tilt with Atlanta.
Saints QB Jameis Winston looked halfway-decent in Week 1, but it has since been revealed that he’s been playing with fractures in his back. Ouch! I would not want to face Danielle Hunter, Za’Darius Smith, and this Vikings pass rush in such a condition.
This could also be a get-right game for receiver Justin Jefferson, who has been relatively quiet by his standards in two of the three weeks this season. JJ has never faced New Orleans, so expect quite the battle between him and Marshon Lattimore.
The Vikings secondary, meanwhile, should get safety Harrison Smith back from concussion protocol, just in time to face a Saints offense that could be without Winston, Michael Thomas (toe), Jarvis Landry (foot), and Tre’Quan Smith (concussion). Dalvin Cook (shoulder) is expected to play for Minnesota, so I’m going with the purple here.
Best NFL over/under bets Week 4
Titans at Colts: OVER 42.5 (-110)
These teams are both heating up lately, with Indy coming off a win over Kansas City and Tennessee fresh off a close victory over the Raiders. All we need is a 23-20 win by either side in a competition that pits the rushing champs from the past two years together? Yes, please! Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry should put on a show, and the Matt Ryan-Michael Pittman connection should be strong against Tennessee’s young, vulnerable secondary in Nashville. I’ve got this game closer to 50 than 42.
Browns at Falcons: Falcons UNDER 23 points (-110)
For this one, we’re going with just Atlanta’s over/under, a cool feature within the Caesars Sportsbook that lets us dive deeper into the game. I don’t trust the Dirty Birds’ offense, even though they started getting the ball to Kyle Pitts lately, to their credit. This Browns defense is just too strong (assuming Myles Garrett plays), and Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and company are too adept at controlling the clock via the rush for us to worry too much about Atlanta mounting many drives. Easy money here. We also like the full game UNDER of 49.5, especially considering BetQL’s sharp data reports that over 90 percent of the money is on the OVER.
Take advantage of BetQL’s 3-day free trial and see all of our best bets across all sports, including college football, NFL and MLB!
Best NFL player prop bets Week 4
Player props are from Caesars Sportsbook. More props will be added once they go live.
Bengals vs. Dolphins: Ja’Marr Chase OVER 5.5 receptions (-157)
The Bengals (1-2) may be coming off a win over the Jets, but they certainly haven’t seemed right all season. If they’re going to get right, they need to harness the mammoth abilities of stud second-year receiver Ja’Marr Chase.
The 2021 Offensive Rookie of the Year is one of the most electric playmakers in the NFL, and this home game is essentially a must-win for Cincy with Baltimore and Cleveland both playing strong 2-1 football through three weeks. Miami’s defense is good, but it can be “bend-don’t-break” at times against the pass, and Chase doesn’t need much separation to make quick noise. I’m going in on the OVER here and lighting a Burrow stogie if we hit.
