The process is both simple and advanced at the same time: we scour the sportsbooks in search of prime betting value. We then analyze matchups, data, and betting trends — both past and present — and weigh out potential variables for each game, before turning it all into one succinct listing of nine or 10 best bets. No matter your betting preference, we have you covered!
Last week, we had our first mulligan of the season — but we still hit on half of our bets. The Cowboys continued to make us money, rolling over the Super Bowl-hungover Rams. The Chargers took care of the Browns on the road, and the Bills-Steelers and Falcons-Buccaneers games both went UNDER. If a 50-percent success rate is as bad as it gets, I guess we’re holding up okay.
MORE: Full list of odds for NFL Week 6
However, we aren’t interested in breaking even and handing over the vig to the books in the process. We want to hit it big! So, let’s get to Sporting News’ best NFL bets for Week 6
JUMP TO: Spreads | Moneylines | Over/under | Player props
NFL Best Bets Week 6: Against the spread
All odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Commanders (Pick ’em) at Bears
This is a straight pick ’em, and it’s only moved to a coin-flip because bettors have flooded onto sportsbooks to back the Bears with the points (62 percent of money on the spread, 61 percent of tickets, according to BetQL). However, at even money, QL says 67 percent of action has been on the Commanders.
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Consider us part of that 67 percent. Look, we know Washington is 1-4 and Carson Wentz has looked bad at times this season, but he’s also looked really good at other times! Also, Chicago owning a 2-3 record represents one of the more deceiving parts of the NFL standings. This Bears team looks like a basement-dweller if we’ve ever seen one.
The Bears’ only two wins came in a monsoon against Trey Lance in Week 1 and a close win over Davis Mills and the Texans in Week 3. The Commanders, meanwhile, have had a pretty rough run of opponents with Derrick Henry running roughshod over them, the Cowboys D shutting them down, Jalen Hurts and the undefeated Eagles toying with them, and the much-healthier Lions roaring against them at home.
I’m glad we don’t have to back them by any amount of points today because the Commanders will be missing rookie receiver Jahan Dotson (hamstring) and tight end Logan Thomas (calf). That said, top-to-bottom, Washington has a better squad than second-year QB Justin Fields and this hapless Chicago offense, and before getting gashed by King Henry last week, the Commanders had only allowed one rushing score all season.
If Fields has to beat Washington through the air and outduel Wentz, Terry McLaurin, and Curtis Samuel, we’re siding with the District. We’ll also be keeping our eyes peeled for a possible Brian Robinson Jr. breakout, which will be a great early-season story for a prime-time game.
Browns (-2.5) vs. Patriots
Surprise, surprise — Bill Belichick has his defense performing admirably at the quarter-point of the NFL season. The Pats decimated the Lions 29-0 at home last weekend, taking full advantage of Detroit’s missing offensive pieces. Well, this weekend will be a tad different for a few different reasons: the game is in Cleveland, the Browns feature one of the best (and healthiest) RBs in the game in Nick Chubb, and Cleveland has a much better defense than Detroit.
New England has surrendered 128.8 rushing yards per game this season – not great timing when you’re marching into the Dawg Pound to face Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Chubb leads the NFL with 593 ground yards and seven TDs. With either a hobbled Mac Jones (ankle) or rookie Bailey Zappe under center for the Pats, the Pats can’t be expected to produce as well offensively, as Cleveland has a much better defense than Detroit. The line should be Browns -4, so take the field goal cover and laugh on your way to the bank on Monday.
NFL WEEK 6 PICKS: Against the spread | Moneyline Picks
Broncos (+4.5) at Chargers
We’re backing Russell Wilson and the embattled Broncos here, but if they burn us again, this is the last time! Monday Night Football games rarely reward chalk bettors, as we’ve seen with MNF upsets two of the past three weeks. Denver is desperate for a “W” and will do anything it can to preserve its season (and head coach Nathaniel Hackett’s job).
Also, consider that Los Angeles could be missing two of its most important pieces: edge rusher Joey Bosa (out because of a groin injury) and wideout Keenan Allen (missed the past four games because of a hamstring injury). That’s a big blow for a Chargers squad that had zero sacks last week against Cleveland and will struggle to get its pass game going against an elite Broncos secondary (Denver has allowed the fewest air yards in the NFL, 176.6 per game). Wilson might not completely outduel Justin Herbert, but we also don’t see the Broncos getting crushed in prime time.
MORE NFL WEEK 6: Power Rankings
Best NFL moneyline bets Week 6
Bills (-145) at Chiefs
Ahh, the game of the week and perhaps the game of the entire regular season. This should be a delight for any fan of football: a marquee matchup between the two best young quarterbacks. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes facing off in a rematch of the AFC divisional round in late January. Everyone will be talking about how Mahomes and the Chiefs prevailed in that one. I’m betting on Allen and the Bills getting some revenge.
Former Kansas City stud wideout Tyreek Hill had 11 catches for 150 yards and a TD in that game, and while Hill’s services have hardly even been missed by the 4-1 Chiefs, this is the type of game where not having a true game-breaker will be felt. Buffalo’s defense has been superb, and the Bills’ offense has been even better.
Stefon Diggs has been as dominant as ever for Allen, and last week we saw WR2 Gabe Davis come out of his 2022 shell for two massive touchdown catches. We understand the atmosphere at Arrowhead Stadium and the unbelievable skill of tight end Travis Kelce, but KC only beat Vegas by one at home on Monday, and Buffalo is light-years ahead of the 1-4 Raiders in just about every facet.
Give us Allen and the Bills in their first trip to Arrowhead as favorites. They beat the Chiefs in Kansas City in October last season, and they’ll do it again this year.
Vikings (-165) at Dolphins
It almost feels like Miami has suffered from the karma of letting Tua Tagovailoa play hurt — that’s how bad the Dolphins’ 40-17 bludgeoning at the hands of the Jets looked. Tagovailoa now remains out, Miami’s receiving corps is banged up, and we still don’t quite know what’s happening with offseason acquisition Chase Edmonds.
That’s not even the worst part for the ‘Phins. Miami ranks as the fourth-worst scoring defense and has allowed the fifth-most passing yards through five weeks. That’s a bad sign when Justin Jefferson is headed down to South Beach. The Vikings have too many weapons between Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and Dalvin Cook. Skylar Thompson won’t be able to outduel Kirk Cousins in this one.
Seahawks (+115) vs. Cardinals
Here’s the upset of the week with Geno Smith looking to continue his magical 2022 season by lighting up the struggling Cardinals defense in Seattle. Pete Carroll must be living the dream right now with Russell Wilson struggling in Mile High and Smith playing like a Pro Bowler. Don’t expect the Cards’ secondary to slow down Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, as Smith should have a clean pocket against an Arizona defense that’s produced a league-low six sacks. The Seahawks have allowed just nine QB takedowns, so it could be easy pickings for Smith. The Cardinals will put up their fair share of points against Seattle’s lackluster defense, but Kyler Murray and company will still be missing suspended wideout DeAndre Hopkins (and possibly starting RB James Conner) more than ever.
Best NFL over/under bets Week 6
Ravens at Giants: OVER 45.5 (-110)
Over/under totals are tough to pick this week, as the slate includes so many poor, mismatched games. However, we like this OVER, and not just because of Lamar Jackson’s brilliance and Saquon Barkley’s return to dominance. We also like Devin Duvernay and Mark Andrews against a Giants D that has zero interceptions through five weeks, and we like Daniel Jones at home against a Ravens D that has allowed the most passing yards in the NFL. No part of this game suggests “defensive battle.” It’s not 2010 anymore, folks. This one could reach the 50s.
Cowboys at Eagles: OVER 42 (-110)
The top story in this game, of course, is Jalen Hurts playing like an MVP while leading the Eagles to their first 5-0 start since the last season they made the Super Bowl. A close second storyline is Cooper Rush, who has been masterful in relief ever since Dak Prescott (thumb), who figures to be out for at least one more week. The Cowboys have won four consecutive games, scoring a tidy 22.5 points per game in the process, and while the stout Eagles defense will be their stiffest test of the young season, we think Rush and his talented corps of skill players can get it done. We know Philly can put up points, as Hurts and the Eagles rank fifth in scoring and second in total yards. Dallas has an elite defense, sure, but an undefeated Philly offense on the road should crack the code. This one will be fun.
Best NFL player prop bets Week 6
Panthers at Rams: Christian McCaffrey OVER 59.5 rushing yards (-111)
Matt Rhule’s reign in Carolina has finally (and mercifully) ended, and Steve Wilks takes over as the interim head coach. One common denominator in Wilks’ coaching history is that his squads have always utilized the run game heavily. The one sure thing about the Panthers is Christian McCaffrey. With the Rams struggling mightily this season, we like this one to be closer than the naked eye might think (wait, do naked eyes think?). CMC hits 75-plus on the ground and scores a couple of TDs in this one.
Packers vs. Jets: Aaron Rodgers OVER 245.5 passing yards (-109)
The books seem to be forgetting that the last two QBs that New York has faced have been Skylar Thompson, and a Mitchell Trubisky-Kenny Pickett combination, so not exactly a murderer’s row of gun-slingers. In Gang Green’s past three games against worthwhile opponents — Baltimore, Cleveland, and Cincinnati — they allowed passing yardage totals of 297, 309, and 252, respectively. Hell, even against the Trubisky/Pickett tandem, the Jets allowed 250 total air yards. Bet on Rodgers to do his thing at Lambeau this weekend.
