Every week, we scour the sportsbooks in search of prime betting value. We then analyze matchups, data, and betting trends — both past and present — and weigh out potential variables for each game before turning it all into one succinct list of nine or 10 best bets. No matter your betting preference — moneyline, spread, over/under, or player props — we have you covered.
Last week, we started hot with the Chiefs (-1) over the 49ers and Bengals (-6.5) over the Falcons. We nailed two out of three moneyline picks, with the Cardinals (-130) throttling the Saints and the surprise-underdog Giants (+143) beating the Jaguars. Our over/unders whiffed, but our player prop — DeAndre Hopkins OVER 59.5 receiving yards — crushed. We’re 13-6 with our best bets over the past two weeks.
MORE: Full list of odds for NFL Week 8
Let’s roar into Week 8 with our best bets, and continue to hit it big like Kenneth Walker III out of the seam!
JUMP TO: Spreads | Moneylines | Over/under | Player props
NFL Best Bets Week 8: Against the spread
All odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Buccaneers (+1) vs. Ravens (Thursday Night Football)
Call us crazy, but we’re not ready to completely write off Tom Brady quite yet. This has been a God-awful year for the GOAT, sure, but making him a home underdog against a bad defense? Nah, that’s going a little too far. Baltimore has allowed the fourth-most passing yards, and sits among the 10 most generous secondaries in terms of pass TDs surrendered. Brady and top playmakers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Leonard Fournette should have a field day in this must-win game, while Tampa’s defense should bounce back from a miserable performance against Carolina.
Earlier in the year, Lamar Jackson was playing like he wanted a second MVP. But he has come rocketing back to Earth over the past three weeks. In that span, he has thrown multiple interceptions, lost multiple fumbles, and been sacked six times. He has zero games in that stretch with a completion rate above 59.4 percent, and he doesn’t have a multiple-touchdown day since Week 3. If you’re betting Baltimore on the road in a short week over the GOAT, you’re just not paying attention.
BetQL stat trend: Over the last three years, the Buccaneers are 8-1 versus teams averaging at least 130 rushing yards per game (Ravens averaging 156 rush yards per game).
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NFL WEEK 8 PICKS: Against the spread | Moneyline Picks
49ers (PK) at Rams
The 49ers sent shockwaves through the NFL last week when they traded for All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey, an ‘all-in’ move that resembled the 2021 Rams. Now L.A., which had also been in the running for CMC, has to face the stud back for the second time in three weeks — but this time, he’s joined by a better o-line, superior defense, more capable QB in Jimmy Garoppolo, an elite tight end in George Kittle, and an electric wideout tandem of Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.
If the Rams honestly believed they had a shot to repeat as world champions, they would have made sure they won the CMC sweepstakes. But RB is just a fraction of L.A.’s laundry list of weaknesses following a bevy of offseason departures. Matthew Stafford — who has gone 1-6 against the 49ers throughout his career — is clearly not at 100 percent, nor has he been all season. The offensive line has failed to protect him, and his pass-catchers beyond Cooper Kupp have largely been a disappointment. Give me the Niners, the new class of the NFC West.
Key stat trend: Stafford is 0-11 in the last 11 games he’s been sacked at least five times, including three games this season. San Fran ranks second in the NFL in sacks per game (3.4), while L.A. has suffered the second-most sacks (3.7).
Packers (+10.5) at Bills (Sunday Night Football)
I know the Packers have struggled mightily of late, losing to both of the other New York squads and falling to Taylor Heinicke and the Commanders. Oh, and don’t forget about their near-loss to Bailey Zappe and the Patriots at Lambeau Field. But 12 points seems a bit ridiculous, no? Aaron Rodgers has won four MVPs, including each of the past two, and RB Aaron Jones remains one of the best playmakers in the NFC. Plus, Green Bay’s D is not nearly bad enough to make the Pack a double-digit ‘dog.
Josh Allen and the Bills enjoyed a Week 7 bye to prepare for this one, but Buffalo is just 1-1-1 since 2019 following a bye week. In that same span, Green Bay is 10-3 ATS coming off a loss. Rodgers may be approaching the hill, but we don’t think he’s fully over it quite yet. Buffalo will likely win this game, but we’re betting it won’t be by 12.
MORE NFL WEEK 8: Power Rankings
Best NFL moneyline bets Week 8
Patriots (-160) at Jets
It was a roller-coaster Monday evening in Foxboro, with Patriots Nation booing Mac Jones off the field and Bailey Zappe triumphantly putting New England’s offense on his back. But in no time, Zappe Hour subsided — or should we say the power got zapped out of Gillette Stadium — and the Bears ultimately crushed the Pats.
But as long as Bill Belichick is the emperor of the dark side that is New England football, this Patriots squad will bounce back after losses. Since 2003, the Pats are an NFL-best 59-20 following a loss — and since 2021, they are 6-3-1 ATS after losses.
The Jets have an up-and-coming defense — Sauce Gardner is an absolute menace of a rookie cornerback — but they aren’t quite as good as Chicago’s team D, and the weather won’t be as bad as it was in Foxboro Monday night. Add to that Gang Green losing stud rookie RB Breece Hall to an ACL tear, and it’s hard for us to see New England falling to its divisional foes.
Titans (-125) at Texans
Davis Mills had an awesome Week 7 — 302 yards and two TDs — against the Raiders, but Houston still got destroyed 38-20. Meanwhile, the Titans defense continued to impress, leading Tennessee to its fourth-straight victory and third-consecutive game allowing 17 points or fewer.
The Texans don’t have enough defensive assets to slow down Derrick Henry and a capable group of Titans’ pass-catchers, nor does Houston have the offensive firepower to score enough points on Tennessee’s underrated defense. The sportsbooks are giving the ‘dogs too much credit here, and not giving the favorites enough respect.
Bengals (-165) at Browns (Monday Night Football)
Interim quarterback Jacoby Brissett and the 2-5 Browns have done their best to weather the storm during Deshaun Watson’s 11-game suspension. But the AFC North is strong, and the AFC defending-champion Bengals (4-3) might be the strongest they have been all season.
The biggest development for Cincy has been the reawakening of 2021 Offensive Rookie of the Year Ja’Marr Chase, who can be one of the most unstoppable playmaking receivers in the NFL when he’s on. And with the Bengals offensive line finally giving Joe Burrow some pocket protection, the sky’s the limit. Weird stuff happens on Monday nights, so avoid the -3.5 spread, but buy a point or bet the moneyline with confidence.
Best NFL over/under bets Week 8
Dolphins at Lions: OVER 52 (-110)
The one thing these teams both have in common: underwhelming defenses. The OVER has hit in four of Detroit’s six games this season, and in all three home games at Ford Field. And with Miami losing safety Brandon Jones to a season-ending ACL tear, the Dolphins’ struggles to contain opposing QBs and limit red-zone production should worsen. The Lions have allowed the most points in the NFL, and the ‘fins have surrendered the 10th-most. Tua Tagovailoa is back under center for Miami, while Detroit should welcome back stud RB D’Andre Swift (shoulder/ankle) and breakout receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (concussion). Don’t overthink this one.
Raiders at Saints: OVER 48.5 (-110)
A whopping 80 percent of Raiders games this season have resulted in OVERs, just above the Saints (5-2, 71.4%). This game, by all accounts, is a battle of the OVER lords. With Jameis Winston presumably back under center, that means even more opportunities for long bombs to rookie wideout Chris Olave and — hopefully — Michael Thomas. On the other side, we always love watching Derek Carr in a shootout, especially now that he has All-Pro Davante Adams paired with tight end Darren Waller for downfield targets. Pound the OVER and enjoy the show — unless you love defense, in which case you should probably stay away from this game entirely.
Best NFL player prop bets Week 8
Buccaneers vs. Ravens: Tom Brady OVER 1.5 passing TDs (-154)
Not to get all GOAT-apologist here, but Brady’s not dead yet. The struggles have been real, yes, but nobody will be more motivated to capture a win than Brady on a short week. TB12 has thrown seven TDs over the course of his last three games against the Ravens, and that was while he was with New England and Baltimore’s defense was actually good. Now they allow the fourth-most passing yards and ninth-most passing TDs in the league. Expect at least two TDs in what should be a decent offensive TNF game, for a change.
We’ll add more player props as they go up on Caesars — for now, get those early bets in, and good luck in Week 8!
